Morocco’s economy is expected to grow 4.7% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2026, after 4.1% in the third quarter and 4% in the second, according to the High Commission for Planning’s Note de conjoncture N°49, published in October 2026. In a more favourable scenario where the energy shock eases, growth could reach about 5.3%.
For founders and business owners, the note gives a quarter-by-quarter view of demand, investment, credit and prices to plan the end of the year and the start of 2027.
About the note
| Publisher | High Commission for Planning (Haut-Commissariat au Plan, HCP), National Institute for Economic Analysis (INAC) |
| Released | October 2026 |
| Title | Note de conjoncture N°49: second quarter 2026 and outlook for the third and fourth quarters |
| Data covered | GDP, sectors, demand, investment, trade, prices and credit, Q2 2026 estimates and Q3 and Q4 2026 forecasts |
| Latest edition? | Yes, as of November 2026. The note is published twice a year, in French and Arabic. |
Key figures
- GDP growth is estimated at 4% in Q2 and 4.1% in Q3 2026, and forecast at 4.7% in Q4, or about 5.3% if the energy shock eases, according to the HCP.
- Agriculture grew 19.9% in Q3 and services 3.9%. Together, agriculture and services would contribute about 4 points of growth in Q4, the note says.
- Household consumption rose 4.1% in Q3 and is forecast to rise 4.3% in Q4. Investment rose 6.2% in Q3 and is forecast to rise 6.8% in Q4.
- Export volumes slowed to 6.2% growth in Q3, from 7.6% in Q2, the HCP reports.
- Prices fell 0.3% in Q3, as food prices dropped 3.6% while non-food prices rose 2.4%.
- Credit to the economy grew 11.1% year on year in Q3, after 11.6% in Q2. Secondary activities contracted 1.9% in Q3, and the HCP expects extractive industries to recover in Q4 once maintenance work ends.
Main indicators, year-on-year change, according to the HCP:
| Indicator | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| Household consumption | 4.1% | 4.3% |
| Investment | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| Export volumes | 6.2% | n/a |
| Consumer prices | -0.3% | n/a |
What these figures mean for Moroccan businesses
- Domestic demand holds. Household consumption above 4% supports businesses that sell to Moroccan consumers through the end of the year.
- Credit is flowing. Credit to the economy up 11.1% points to accessible financing conditions. It is a good moment for businesses with solid plans to discuss financing with their banks.
- Exporters face a softer market. Slower export growth signals weaker foreign demand. Exporters should watch costs and diversify their markets.
- Energy remains the key risk. The gap between the 4.7% central forecast and the 5.3% favourable scenario depends on energy prices. Budgets for 2027 should include an energy cost scenario.
For the labour market side, see our summary of the HCP’s Q3 2026 labour market survey.
📥 Read the full note
The HCP publishes the full note in French on its website. The note is published by the HCP, not by Moroccopreneur.
FAQ
4.7% year on year, or about 5.3% if the energy shock eases, after 4.1% in Q3 and 4% in Q2.
Agriculture and services, which together would contribute about 4 points of growth in Q4, plus household consumption and investment.
Prices fell 0.3%, as food prices dropped 3.6% while non-food prices rose 2.4%.
A regular HCP publication that estimates recent economic activity and forecasts the next two quarters.
Sources
- HCP: Note de conjoncture du deuxième trimestre 2026 et perspectives pour les troisième et quatrième trimestres (summary)
- HCP: Note de conjoncture N°49, October 2026 (PDF)
